Seems much of the world is all a flutter with the recent events in Egypt. Rainbows and Unicorns abound. But is this the beginning of something bigger and far more dangerous than a bunch of demonstrators throwing rocks at tanks?
The following graphic shows 10 countries that have oppressive authoritarian dictatorial governments that could be the next domino in the chain of events started by Egypt. NONE are a true democracy and ALL are at risk of organized "overthrow."
Clearly the majority are in the Middle East and northern Africa but Asia and the Pacific Rim host two - China and Vietnam, while South America has Venezuela.
UPDATE 02/13/11
Looks like Yemen is the first country to move
UPDATE 02/16/11
China - Authoritarian with a serious inflation problem and soaring food prices. As a total expenditure per household - food accounts for roughly 40%. Willing to execute it's own people should they get out of line, it is likely that only a major liquidity and banking crisis could bring about any significant change.
Iran - Islamic "democratically elected" Republic willing and capable of crushing most protests. Egypt may be an inspiration and push Iranian youth back into the streets.
Jordan - A constitutional monarchy boasting a very modest "democracy" that is already feeling the pressure of protests. Subsidies for both food and fuel are helping - but stay tuned. The threat to the regime is very real.
Libya - Authoritarian but with a very real Muslim Brotherhood presence. Libya finds itself high on the "list" stuck geographically between Egypt and Tunisia - with an eccentric nutcase leader.
Morocco - Another constitutional monarchy whose government has already undergone democratic reforms. Not likely next - it's government is in tune and ready to change further.
Pakistan - Democratic republic with a dire economic crisis. There are large anti-government pro-Muslim fundamentalist forces. Look out for another coup.
Saudi Arabia - ABSOLUTE monarchy seeing some very small protests relating primarily to poor infrastructure and the feeling that those in power are squandering their oil riches. With a youth unemployment rate over 40% real pressure could be brought to bear.
Syria - Singularly authoritarian with a ruthless regime but a much better economic situation than most other countries on the "list." In bed with Iran and a state powerful enough to quash most protests.
Yemen - Presidential "democracy" with a huge unemployment problem and a large terrorist group presence. It is the headquarters for Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula. Protests are frequent and significant with one of two outcomes likely - further radicalization or some sort of change. Who knows.
Vietnam - Authoritarian Communist state that could succumb to popular protests and threaten the ruling party if economic conditions should worsen.
Venezuela - Authoritarian republic whose leader has a Twitter account. Chavez has more than likely out stayed his welcome but is by in large embraced by his people for his anti-American sentiments.
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BOOM |
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